It is claimed that 40,000 flats in Berlin have been taken off the regular rental market through holiday lettings. This figure crops up time and again in political debates, media reports and election campaign arguments. It is large enough to attract attention, and that is precisely part of the problem.
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Unlock content Accept the required service and unlock contentAfter all, depending on the definition, this figure changes drastically. And with it, the political assessment.
A housing market under pressure
Berlin is undoubtedly under massive pressure. The city is growing, demand for housing is rising, and according to official estimates, there is a shortfall of around 140,000 flats. At the same time, rents and construction costs are rising, whilst new-build projects often fall short of expectations.
In this context, any potential ‘misallocation’ of housing immediately becomes a political issue. Holiday lettings via platforms such as Airbnb are a particular focus of attention because they are visible and easy to publicise.
But the crucial question is: how significant is their actual impact?
40,000 or 6,000 flats?
A new study by the Apartment-Allianz Berlin has reached a significantly different conclusion to many political estimates. Instead of 40,000 holiday flats, the study identifies around 6,000 genuine holiday flats in the capital.
The difference is enormous, but it can be explained. This is because the two figures do not measure the same thing.
The higher figure of 40,000 is often based on a very broad definition. It includes:
- entire flats that are let on a long-term basis to tourists
- occasional lettings by private individuals
- as well as individual rooms within owner-occupied flats
The study, however, applies a much stricter definition. It defines a genuine holiday let as exclusively whole residential units that are used on a permanent and commercial basis for short-term lettings.
This distinction is crucial, but is often not made clearly in the public debate.
A politically charged issue
The debate surrounding holiday let properties is no longer purely an economic issue. It has become part of a wider political narrative: the housing crisis in Berlin.
This issue is gaining even more momentum, particularly in the context of elections. Political parties are under pressure to come up with solutions. Holiday lets offer a simple explanation: living space is being ‘misused’ and taken off the market.
The problem is that this explanation falls short.
It is emotionally compelling, but often analytically incomplete.
A look at the overall figures
To properly assess the impact of holiday lettings, one must consider the market as a whole.
Berlin has around 2.01 million flats. At the same time, the housing shortfall is estimated at around 140,000 units.
Even if one takes the higher figure of 40,000 holiday lettings as a basis, this represents less than 2 per cent of the total stock and less than a third of the estimated shortfall.
This significantly changes the scale of the issue.
Added to this is a point that is often overlooked: according to the census, around 40,000 flats in Berlin are vacant. Some of these have been vacant for over a year. These properties are also effectively removed from the market, yet they do not receive the same political attention as holiday lets.
How significant is the actual impact?
Of course, holiday lets do have an impact on individual neighbourhoods. Studies show that additional Airbnb listings can lead to slight increases in local rents. A study by the German Institute for Economic Research puts this effect at an average of around 13 cents per square metre.
This is measurable, but relative to the overall level of rents, it is not a dominant driver of the crisis. More important are the structural factors that have been shaping the market for years.
The real causes of the housing crisis
The causes of the tight housing market in Berlin run deeper and are less emotionally tangible:
Firstly: New-build housing is not sufficient to meet demand.
Secondly: Construction costs have risen sharply in recent years.
Thirdly: Planning approval processes are lengthy and complex.
Fourthly: Political uncertainties are deterring investors.
Fifthly: The city continues to grow steadily as people move in.
These factors have a systemic and long-term impact. By contrast, the influence of holiday let properties is comparatively limited.
Why the debate is still so heated
The reason lies less in their economic significance and more in political communication.
Holiday lettings are visible. They are tangible. And they lend themselves well as a symbol of rising rents and a housing shortage.
Complex causes such as housing policy, bureaucracy or the investment climate, on the other hand, are more difficult to convey.
This creates an imbalance between perception and reality.
Conclusion
The question ‘Is Airbnb destroying Berlin?’ can be answered with a clear ‘no’, at least based on the available data.
Yes, holiday lettings do have an impact on certain markets and segments. Yes, they are part of urban housing policy. But they are not the main driver of Berlin’s housing problems.
Rather, the data paints a different picture: a structural housing shortage determined by new-build projects, planning and the political framework, not by a single platform model.
Anyone who really wants to understand the market must therefore take a closer look and distinguish between symbolic politics and structural causes.
